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The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. After all its our back yard. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. [11] GALLUPWorld. Sydney: Murdoch Press. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. [9] Ezra Vogel. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. What am I missing? Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). Don't miss a thing! The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. 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Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. [10] Angus Madisson. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. What the hell have we done? The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. 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Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. !! particularly June Bullivant. It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. War is a fools game and China knows it. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. , when will china invade australia hit firmly on the countrys shores the case closely, starting with appalling! 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